Onshore and inshore up to about 12 nautical miles from the coast, the Welsh Government is responsible for large-scale renewable energy projects with a capacity of 10MW – 350MW through the DNS (Developments of National Significance) process. Smaller onshore projects are decided by local authorities.

Projects in the sea that are either over 350MW or more than 12 nautical miles offshore are the responsibility of the Crown Estate, so are not devolved, although WG wants this to change. The grid connection is approved by the UK Government.

There are rumours that WG will put update the Future Wales Plan in the near future to include offshore wind, and at the same time increase its campaign to get responsibility for the seabed fully devolved.

All but the smallest projects require at least a grid connection agreement in principle from National Grid before they can be built.

So far, most wind development off the Wales coast has been restricted to fixed structures in the Irish Sea. The three windfarms already developed in the Irish Sea, North Hoyle, Rhyl Flats and Gwynt Y Mor have a total capacity of 726MW, generating in the region of 2.29Terrawatt Hours (TWh.)

Awel Y Mor will lie about 10.5km off the Wales coast, as an extension to the west of the existing Gwynt Y Mor above. It’s expected to be operational by 2030. It will cover a maximum total area of approximately 78km2 and will contain between 34 and 50 turbines with a maximum tip height of 332m. It’s expected to have a generating capacity of 576MW, equal to the size of Gwynt Y Mor. Using current average load factors, Awel Y Mor should generate 1.82TWh of electricity.

A planning application for Mona Offshore Windfarm, at 1,500MW capacity the largest of the planned fixed platform offshore windfarms, is expected to be submitted to the Wales Planning Inspectorate in early 2024. https://infrastructure.planninginspectorate.gov.uk/projects/wales/mona-offshore-wind-farm/

Also in the mix are Llyr 1, Llyr 2 and Whitecross which each have a capacity of 100MW.

This means that the current proposals for fixed windfarms off the coast of Wales, if taken to completion, will have a total installed capacity of 1,800MW and an estimated generation of 5.68Twh. With those already in production, this takes the total fixed platform installed capacity off the coast of Wales to 3,201MW with a predicted generation, based on an estimated 36% load factor, of 10.09TWh. *

The Celtic Sea is the area of sea that lies between Ireland, Cornwall and Wales. Each of those nations has its own particular area in the sea. Industry experts estimate that there is 50GW of “offshore wind resource.”

As described above, most leases for windfarms off the coast of Wales are the responsibility of the Crown Estate.

Floating offshore wind platforms are being developed for deployment in the Celtic Sea, which, it is suggested, will revolutionise off-shore wind production. The UK is known to be a leading exponent of floating wind technology.

A 96MW test and demonstration project, Erebus, will be the first floating platform in the Celtic Sea. Named after a famous ship which was built in Pembroke Dock in 1826, it is seen as the flagship project of Blue Gem Wind, a joint venture between Total and Simply Blue Energy.

The project will have between 7 and 10 turbines on WindFloat® floating platforms located approximately 44 km southwest of the Pembrokeshire coastline.

The website https://www.principlepower.com/projects/erebus states:

“The Erebus project will see the deployment of a fully industrialized WindFloat® (platform) and represents a stepping stone that will allow the local supply chain to build capabilities for the delivery of larger projects under development in the Celtic Sea region.”

In December 2022 The Crown Estate issued a press release laying out what it described as “ambitious plans” to deliver and initial 4GW of energy capacity in the Celtic Sea by 2035. It stated that the region had been assessed as capable of accommodating 24GW by 2045.

https://www.thecrownestate.co.uk/en-gb/media-and-insights/news/2022-the-crown-estate-accelerates-plans-for-floating-offshore-wind-in-the-celtic-sea-with-multi-million-pound-programme-of-marine-surveys/

To be clear, this would not all be added towards Wales net zero targets. Only that generated in the Wales section of the Celtic Sea would do that. But even that is expected to be a considerable amount.

TCE sees offshore floating wind as not only supporting UK progress towards net zero and strengthening its energy security, but also being the catalyst for new jobs, investment and supply chain opportunities. They said they were working with the UK and Wales Governments to understand their approaches to supply chain development and put in place the foundations for clean energy and economic opportunities in the future.

In the same press release the TCR revealed that it was embarking on a multi- million-pound programme of marine surveys ahead of this accelerated programme.

It has also been refining its search areas for where future windfarm licenses could be awarded. This was being done simultaneously with the Habitats Regulations Assessment. This assesses the potential impact of leasing plans on the most valuable environment habitats in the UK.

Bangor University is leading a four-year research project to assess how species conservation can be enhanced around offshore windfarms.

https://www.bangor.ac.uk/news/2022-08-30-ps2m-project-will-assess-the-impact-of-offshore-wind-farms-on-the-ecosystem

The £2m ECOwind-ACCELERATE project will identify opportunities to benefit the conservation of species and biodiversity net gain around offshore windfarms. It will also support developers to develop environmental monitoring strategies for the long term.

The work is being funded by the National Environmental Research Council, the Crown Estate and Defra.

Concerns already raised by a variety of environmental groups include

• ocean noise created by the windfarms which could confuse sea mammals and

• collisions of migrating birds with turbines

• fish and mammal collisions or entanglements sub-sea with structures or cables

• changes to the shape and sediment composition of the seabed

• This could lead to frequent changes in the locations where seabirds hunt fish and reduce the clarity of the water. It’s believed this will be exacerbated by future storms caused by climate change and the changes could occur far beyond the infrastructure.

• Cumulatively all this could have a serious effect on the organisms of the seabed and species and biodiversity richness. Fish that depend on these organisms will move away, causing further problems up the food chain.

• https://www.bangor.ac.uk/news/2022-08-30-ps2m-project-will-assess-the-impact-of-offshore-wind-farms-on-the-ecosystem.

In 2022 the RSPB published a report called Powering Healthy Seas. Use this link to find a detailed press release and a link to the report itself.

https://www.rspb.org.uk/about-the-rspb/about-us/media-centre/press-releases/offshore-wind-report-22/

The report states that through a new “nature positive” approach, the expansion of offshore wind over the next decade can be delivered without jeopardizing the UK’s efforts to restore seabird populations.

The National Grid has provided a helpful guide to the advantages and disadvantages of offshore and onshore wind generation.

https://www.nationalgrid.com/stories/energy-explained/onshore-vs-offshore-wind-energy#:~:text=Disadvantages%20of%20offshore%20wind%20power&text=Offshore%20wind%20farms%20require%20more,are%20more%20expensive%20to%20construct.&text=Higher%20wind%20speeds%2C%20strong%20seas,farms%20mo

In very brief summary, in comparison to onshore, offshore is:

* More expensive to build

* More expensive and challenging to maintain due, etc to high seas

* More efficient because of higher and more reliable wind speeds

* Offshore turbines produce more power and have higher load factors, here predicted to be 57% by 2030.

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/electric-power/082620-benchmark-uk-offshore-wind-load-factors-seen-rising-to-57-in-2030-beis#:~:text=Current%20UK%20offshore%20wind%20capacity,and%2020%20MW%20in%202040.

But in this document, the UK Government goes further and says that load factors for new build offshore turbines going forward from 2023 will be 58.4%.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk › file

The figures for 2017 -2021 in the UK showed onshore turbines having a capacity of 26.28% compared with 40.22% for offshore wind. The figure for all wind was 31.84% over the same period.

https://www.renewableuk.com/page/UKWEDExplained/Statistics-Explained.htm#:~:text=Load%20Factors&text=Using%20stats%202017%2D2021%20(released,(onshore%20%2B%20offshore)%3A%2031.84%25

Floating offshore wind platforms (FLOW), positioned far out in the Celtic Sea, could provide one of the biggest investment opportunities for Wales in decades. So says the Welsh Affairs Committee of the UK Parliament in March 2023. Its report spells out the opportunities for Wales supply chains, with MPs on the committee insisting that local suppliers must be favoured over those from abroad. Mistakes made during the rollout of conventional, fixed bottom offshore wind, when much of the manufacture took place overseas, must not be repeated, they said.

https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/162/welsh-affairs-committee/news/186547/floating-offshore-wind-in-celtic-sea-could-be-biggest-investment-opportunity-in-wales-but-certainty-over-projects-needed-from-uk-government/#:~:text=Larger%20turbines%20sited%20farther%20offshore,floating%20offshore%20wind%20by%202030.

The South Wales ports of Milford Haven and Port Talbot, announced as Freeports earlier this year, could become manufacturing hubs for the components of the new floating wind platforms, opening up massive economic opportunities in South Wales.

The committee describes this as a once in a generation industrial opportunity for Wales that must not be missed. It urges close collaboration between the UK government and the Senedd on a project which it’s said could bring up to £20billion into the domestic market.